Insights

1st Quarter Market Update 2024

Happy New Year! 

The 4th quarter was quite the wild ride so here is my attempt to summarize what just happened. 

• Stocks: The Party Animals: Stocks in Q4 2023 were like the life of a New Year’s Eve party, unpredictably swinging from ecstatic highs to “Oops, I shouldn’t have done that” lows. They seemed to ride on a rollercoaster fueled by investor optimism, economic data surprises, and the magical whispers of potential interest rate cuts, much like party-goers riding on waves of energy drinks.

• Bonds: The Comeback Kid: Bonds, usually the more composed and predictable sibling, decided to throw caution to the wind and join the party. They made a surprising comeback, akin to a forgotten 80s band suddenly topping the charts again, as Treasury yields took a dramatic bow and investors rediscovered their love for these old-school classics.

• The Magician’s Finale: Overall, Q4 was like a magician’s grand finale, with the market pulling rabbits out of hats when least expected. Just when everyone thought they had seen it all, the markets conjured up a surprise, leaving investors both amused and perplexed, wondering if they were witnessing financial wizardry or just a very well-orchestrated illusion.

With all of the twists and turns and the less than stellar 3rd quarter performance, the S&P 500 bounced 11.69% in the 4th quarter and the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index jumped 6.82%.      

Personal Side:

This March, the girls and I will go to Washington, DC.  My hope is that the girls will get a glimpse of the capital and an increased sense of pride in our country.  I also hope it makes the coming election a little more real.  My fingers are crossed that we time it right during the cherry trees blooming.  

Amelia is a cheerleader and enjoying a great group of friends.  Their latest thing is to do sleepovers and try to stay up as late as they can.  I guess they are preparing for any sudden time changes they may experience.  

Lila is making high school look easy and Evan and I look like super parents.  She just completed drivers ed.  I know this shocks the many families I have been with since she was born.

Business side:

Its tax time again! Your tax documents should come out by February 15th and will be mailed to you. If you do want to access your tax documents online, we can walk you through that process. To be taken through the log in process,  please e-mail us  to request an invite to the portal. We are here to help so don’t hesitate to call with any questions at all.

Social Media:

We want to connect with you more via social media.  Let’s connect on InstagramLinkedIn or Twitter at @tmrwwealth, or follow our page on  Facebook. We will be posting regularly on our blog as well so be sure to check it out from time to time.

Introductions:

With a new year many people revise goals and hope to get their financial lives in order.   We want to help.  Keep us in mind if someone is seeking more clarity in their own financial life.  For people who fall into the top income tax brackets we have really been able to impact their financial lives with a few adjustments.  Tell them we are so odd that an actual human even answers the phone! 

Online Access:

If you have already set up your account and would like to access your accounts, click here.

The Bus:

Please take a moment to visit our page showing all of the organizations we have supported with the bus.  We love to donate certificates for the bus to various charity auctions.  If you would like to use the bus, you can email [email protected] to inquire about it.  For more information on the bus, you can go to www.whythebus.com.

Fourth Quarter Outlook:

The themes we are watching as we enter 2024 

• The AI Rollercoaster: As AI continues to dazzle and disrupt, the first quarter of 2024 is like watching a tech-savvy toddler with a new toy – everyone’s excited but slightly nervous about what it’ll do next. Will AI skyrocket like a rocket or decide it’s nap time? Keep your eyes peeled for surprise plot twists in productivity and market dynamics!

• Interest Rate Limbo Dance: How low can they go? The central bank’s interest rate policies in Q1 2024 are like a financial limbo dance, with investors bending over backward, trying to guess just how low interest rates will dip. Will they shimmy under the bar of economic expectations or knock it over completely?

• Presidential Election Plot Thickens: With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, the political scene resembles a reality TV show, full of drama and unexpected alliances. The economic policies and promises dished out are like a buffet of mystery dishes – some might be surprisingly tasty, while others could leave a bad taste in the mouth. Stay tuned for the next episode of “Election Economics: 2024”!

We are always here to help and grateful for the opportunity to serve you and your loved ones. 

With gratitude,

Matt Logan

Sources: 

Disclosures:  Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.  The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisors LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.  The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which used to be called the “Lehman Aggregate Bond Index,” is a broad base index, maintained by Barclays Capital, and is often used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in the U.S. Barclays Capital (BarCap) U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is made up of the Barclays Capital U.S. Government/Corporate Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and Asset-Based Securities Index, including securities that are of investment grade quality or better, have at least one year to maturity, and have an outstanding par value of at least $100 million.

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