3rd Quarter 2020 Outlook

Life on our planet has changed.  The changes to our way of life are felt by all of us in a multitude of ways.  Many families struggling with grieving the loss of loved ones and lacking closure, others are dealing with a sudden job loss and some struggling with mental health in a world that can seem very broken.  For both of you and my mother reading this, take a moment, stop what you are doing, take a deep breath and reach your hand behind your back and give yourself a pat.  You are amazing. 

The financial turbulence has been nothing less than remarkable.  Those of you who stayed the course and stared down the fear that came with opening your April statements have been rewarded with an S&P 500 return in the second quarter of 20.54%, the highest since the 4th quarter of 1987 and at the halfway point of the year, the S&P is only down 3.08%.  Many of your portfolios have followed this very same pattern.  Thank you for your confidence as I know it can feel uncomfortable during such volatile times. 

As a planner, it can be tempting to fix your eyes on the immediate uncertainty and lose site of the long financial path beyond that uncertainty.  I encourage you to stay the course.  Our commitment is to the long-term financial plans we can create for you and your family.  Long term planning serves as a road map and offers clarity on short term financial decisions as well.

On the Personal Side:

Things have been tough for everyone and if I were to say my family has not had our moments during quarantine would be misleading.  We are learning to take another deep breath and cherish the little things like a family walk after dinner, the Saharan Dust Sunsets, mountain biking and lots of cooking dinner at home.

One comic parenting fail I must share is that our family has become the accidental owner of two roosters.  For Lila’s 11th birthday, she got baby chicks.  We got what we thought was 4 females.  Even our dog Cash had taken to the chickens and we have all had the joy of truly understanding the term “bird brain.”  To our amazement, two of our bird-brained friends are not really hens, they are roosters.  Apparently the 90% correct statistic given to us by Tractor Supply did not ring true for us.  Upon reviewing the fact that North Carolina law makes cockfighting a felony, our teenage Roos are being “rehomed” this week.  Lila will be relieved that her much sweeter hens will remain.

A financial planner would never have a mid-life crisis, right?  In April I purchased a yellow 1981 Jeep.  I guess a midlife crisis would really be if I had not discussed the idea with Evan so maybe it was a mini-crisis.  It is perfect for drive-by birthday parties and for me feeling like a high school kid.

Evan has shown that she is quite the farmer minus our chicken/rooster scandal.  Not only did she design and build a watering system, she has grown corn, sunflowers, beets, peppers, tomatoes, green beans and squash.  

Amelia is beyond excited about the Razor scooter our neighbors handed down to her.  Amelia driving the scooter correlates directly with my anxiety levels and beer consumption.

On the Business side:

Zoom has become a household name and we have fully adopted the platform as the best way for us to connect with our clients for the time being.  For those of you who want to learn about how to use Zoom and are a little intimidated about technology, we would love to show you how to use the system.  As many meetings, churches, schools and other organizations are using Zoom, we think helping our clients use Zoom will also help them be more connected in other areas of their lives.  We have made the decision to delay in-office meetings for the time being as some of our team is exposed to higher risk individuals.

We have been reaching out to stay updated on lives of our clients.  With things changing rapidly, we ask you to please email if you have had some changes as we can help guide you through pressure situations such as sudden job loss emergency planning.  

One opportunity that has come up for many clients is with the personal budget.  For those who have maintained their job and who had previously seen a large part of their budget go to travel and entertainment, you may have noticed your emergency funds begin to build up.  We have helped many people begin investing outside of their retirement plans for the right situations.  

While we have done our very best to adapt, we are convinced we can do a better job.  To address that, we plan on having big news for you in the coming quarter.  We will make significant improvements in our capacity to be able to better serve you and those you care about.  Please stay tuned as we are very excited about the future.

Send us your best photos:

Recent “best of” challenges caught our attention and a light build went off.  Admittedly, we were looking through stock photos of various people creating our new website, we realized that we don’t want a representation of our clients, we want the real thing.  Please make sure that these are photos that you are willing to allow us to use on our website and on social media.  If you would be willing to help us, please email photos here.

Social Media:

We use social media to provide timely and relevant information instead of bombarding your inbox.  Please follow us.  Let’s connect on LinkedIn or Twitter at @mattloganinc ,or follow my channel on Youtube or  follow my page on Facebook. We will be posting regularly on our blog as well so be sure to check it out from time to time. 

Introductions:

This is a time when people need help.  If you have friends who have had changes in their lives and you believe we can provide some assistance, let us know.  With people losing jobs, losing loved ones and in fear of losing money in the stock market, we hope to provide a little confidence amidst the chaos.  We are here to help and can connect with people virtually to provide advice in times when people need it the most.

Online Access:

We have consolidated our online account access through E-money. This is also the first step in creating your personal financial plan.  You can link all of your financial life into one location that works as an app on your phone.  If you would like to set up an account and do not work with us currently, please email Hollie to set up an account.  If you have already set up your account and would like to access your accounts, click here

The Bus:

The bus has been parked for most of the time.  Recently, we have had a couple of families use the bus to go to local wineries. 

Featured Blog Post:

Did you know that none of us are wired to be good investors?  For an interesting look at Behavioral Bias, check out this recent blog

Third Quarter Outlook:

Making sense of the markets has taken some patience for even the most experienced investors. At times I was even sucked into the regular news cycle and the ever-changing details of contradicting data.  I was on information overload and took a moment to get back to the model I prefer, the K.I.S.S. model.  (Keep It Simple, Stupid) I zoomed out on the situation and I began to see more trends and gain clarity.  The storyline for the financial markets is forward looking.  Companies with strong balance sheets have fared well.  Society as we know it has had some changes that may last long term and others that are temporary.  These changes represent opportunities for investors.  Reviewing past quarterly updates it dawned on me:  This is an election year.  The current administration is going to do everything in their power and the dovish Fed’s power to keep the financial markets high when voters head to the polls in November.  This strategy was used by Bill Clinton and defined by James Carville in 1992 with “It’s the economy, stupid.”  The scope of the CARES act is a prime example.  For a more in depth look at the markets and the third quarter outlook, click here.

We want to help you and your family.  We are and will continue to be here for you.  

Sincerely,

Matt Logan

Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.

Disclosure: The views stated in this piece are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.

The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.

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