Broker Check

3rd Quarter Market Outlook

| July 09, 2018
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3rd Quarter Market Update

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”  Dickens was describing duality in A Tale of Two Cities, he very could have described the duality of the current US economy in his opening line. Here in the US, unemployment is low, interest rates are rising slightly, the housing market is booming, consumer spending is solid, corporations have reported record profits and inflation is in check.  It all sounds like the best of times, right?  Unfortunately, we are plagued daily with news from Washington where the political environment is contentious and globally we are facing a trade war.  While many aspects of the economy appear as though they are the best of times, the news focus keeps many of us still frozen in fear.  If you have had your television on the national news a lot, I recommend a long walk in the brutal heat as an alternative.  It always works better to analyze the overall economy and take a step back instead of making decisions based on the daily news cycle. 

On the Personal Side:

Evan completed the Boston Marathon amidst 37 degree hail and gale force winds.  The girls and I were there to cheer her along. This was the slowest Boston Marathon since the 70s due to the brutal conditions and I am so proud of her accomplishment.  Lila and Amelia were rock stars on the trip and didn’t complain about the cold, wet weather as they were focused on trying to high five every member of the Boston PD that day. 

Lila completed 3rd grade and Amelia completed Kindergarten. At 9 and 6, this summer is looking to be one of the all-time memorable ones as they mature into young ladies and have so much fun exploring the world.  We just dropped a nervous Lila off for three nights at camp yesterday for the first time.  According to Amelia, Lila’s camp stay was on the condition that Amelia approved the cleanliness of the camp, or “Lila would be coming straight back home with us.”  It seems Amelia may have been more ready to go to camp than her sister as she hammed it up in every bunk bed in the cabin as the 9-year-old campers nervously surveyed the room.

True to tradition, we celebrated my birthday and the Fourth in our wonderful Kirkwood Neighborhood with parties, the ceremonious flag raising and a parade again this year.  Today is Evan’s birthday.  We are still discussing what to do next year when we both celebrate our 40th

On the business side:

Brooke had her baby boy, Eli, born on May 22.  The office lights up when she and Eli visit.  It is amazing to see how natural she already is as a mother and we couldn’t be happier for her.  Next up is Ashlie in September.  Katherine just completed her internship and graduated.  Karly is doing a great job interning and filling in for Brooke.  She will stay with us through December when she is scheduled to graduate one semester early from UNCG.  Kudos to Karly, as graduating early these days is seems like some myth from a time long ago as many college students take 5 or more years to finish their education.

Internally, 2018 will be known as the year of the baby.  We have been focusing on systems to be sure we provide consistent service to clients with maternity leaves.  Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything that I can do to help or anything you feel has been missed.  We continue to review clients’ financial situations and put together long term plans.  As always, if you need anything at all, don’t hesitate to reach out to Ashlie to schedule an appointment via email at [email protected]

Social Media:

Social media is the best way to get timely updates and to learn about various financial concepts.  Please connect with me online.  Our Instagram page is currently down while we insure that our compliance tracking will work.  Let’s connect on LinkedIn or Twitter at @mattloganinc ,or follow me on or  like my page on Facebook. 

Introductions:

More new clients are saying that they have meant to meet with a financial planner for years and put it off.  When I ask why, the overwhelming answer is that people are afraid of being pressured.  This fear is reasonable for sure.  If you are speaking with someone looking for answers or a relationship with a financial planner, please pass along my name.    

Online Access:

As I mentioned, we have consolidated our online account access through E-money. If you would like to set up an account and do not work with us currently, please email [email protected] to set up an account.  If you are a client and would like to access your accounts, click here.  Recently, we are helping facilitate financial communication among generations.  If you are concerned about your parents and their financial situation this could be a good solution for you.

The Bus:

My favorite trip this past quarter was our tradition of picking up the kids and some of their friends on the last day of school in the party bus.  Others have used it to visit some of the improving wineries in the region.  To use the bus, please contact [email protected] more information and to schedule a trip.  The bus comes with our driver and the cost is relatively low at $50 an hour to use it. 

Featured Blog Post:

Emotions and psychology have a lot to do with your financial success.  Taking a deeper look at how your emotions effect your decision making, please check out my blog The Top 5 Biases That Impact Investment Decisions.

Third Quarter Outlook:

The global economy has continued to grow.  We are in the later years of this slow-moving bull market.  The bull has been at a slower pace than other bull markets in the past, almost as if it is pacing itself for a marathon instead of the usual sprints.  We feel that this 10 year-old bull market still has some time and do not expect a sustained pullback or recession this year.  There will be more volatility but we feel like rising oil prices and the effects of the tax reform will continue to provide growth for the economy.

Volatility was very low in 2017.  Volatility seems to be back as the first half of 2018 has already had over 3 times as many days when the S&P 500 index moved up or down over 1% than it did in 2017.  We anticipate more volatility for the remainder of the year as the markets return to their old ways. 

Yes, I have been crying wolf about interest rates for a few years now.  It seems that I may finally be telling the truth.  I even saw an ad in the paper the other day about CD rates.  Remember those?  While this is likely a good sign for the economy, it can provide challenges to certain bond investments and their value. 

For a more in depth analysis, please  click here for the Third Quarter 2018 Outlook.

 

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